Hurricane Forecasts

Colorado State University (CSU) Forecasts

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024

We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. We have reduced our forecast number of named storms slightly but have maintained all other numbers from our July update. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We continue to anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

as of 6 August 2024
By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, Alexander J. DesRosiers, and Levi Silvers
With Special Assistance from Carl J. Schreck III
In Memory of William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science,
Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO 80523
To see the full forecast, visit: CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Forecasting

Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:

1)  Entire U.S. coastline - 56% ()  (1880-2020 average is 43%)

2)  U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 30% ()  (1880-2020 average is 21%)

3)  Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% ()  (1880-2020 average is 27%)

Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Tracking Into The Caribbean (10-20° N, 60-88° W)

1)  61% ()  (1880-2020 average is 47%)

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2024